How to Avoid Demurrage Charges: A Predictive Approach for Import/Export Managers

There’s a line worth remembering from a recent industry analysis: "The freight rate is the taxi fare you agreed upfront. Demurrage and detention is the meter that keeps running in traffic" (Dockflow). For import/export managers, that meter has been running faster than most budgets accounted for.

Why Demurrage Is the Bigger Story in 2026

Freight rates get the headlines. Demurrage and detention quietly do more damage to the bottom line - and this year, the gap has widened.

•         A single delayed container can cost 3-7 times more than the increase in the underlying freight rate would suggest (Dockflow).

•         Daily demurrage rates at major ports typically run $150-$300 per container, with escalating tiers the longer a box sits.

•         To put that in concrete terms: a 40ft container held 49 days at a congested port, against a standard 7 free days, works out to roughly 42 chargeable days - somewhere between $6,300 and $12,600 in charges on a single box.

•         Zoom out, and the scale gets sobering: the Federal Maritime Commission's own data shows nine major ocean carriers collected roughly $15.4 billion in demurrage and detention charges between April 2020 and March 2025 (FMC) - and that figure predates this year's port disruptions. The FMC's tracking (covering CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Maersk, MSC, ONE, and Yang Ming) also shows billing rose roughly nine-fold between Q2 2020 and Q1 2022, and was still 85% higher at its Q4 2024 peak than the Q2 2020 baseline - though Q1 2025 saw billings drop 24% quarter-over-quarter, a reminder that these charges move in cycles tied to congestion, not a straight line up.

What's Driving Charges Higher Right Now

Port congestion in 2026 has a specific, traceable cause: an ongoing disruption to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by multiple independent outlets tracking the situation (Al Jazeera; Congressional Research Service). That has pushed volume toward alternative ports that weren't built to absorb it - including Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Salalah, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, and Colombo.

The knock-on effects are showing up in the data. Per logistics analytics firm Dockflow's tracking of terminal performance (Dockflow):

•         Khor Fakkan has recorded 100% congestion for stretches of 10+ days.

•         Mundra has seen departure delays rise 72%, with arrival delays reaching as long as 49 days in extreme cases.

•         Crucially, these charges often accrue even when the shipper did nothing wrong - the terminal itself is the bottleneck, not the paperwork or the booking.

(Note: the Hormuz disruption itself is well corroborated across multiple sources; the specific congestion percentages above come from one industry analyst's tracking and are worth cross-checking against your own carrier/terminal data for the lanes you actually run.)

The Old Way: Reactive Demurrage Management

Most import/export teams still manage demurrage the same way they did a decade ago:

•         Track free time manually in a spreadsheet, per container, per port.

•         Find out about a delay when the invoice arrives - well after the charges have started accruing.

•         Dispute charges after the fact, often with limited documentation to support the claim.

•         Treat demurrage as a fixed cost of doing business rather than a manageable variable.

This approach worked reasonably well when port congestion was the exception. It doesn't work when congestion is the operating environment.

A Predictive Workflow, Step by Step

1. Centralize Free-Time Tracking Across All Ports and Carriers

Free time terms vary by carrier, port, and even specific terminal. A predictive approach starts with one system tracking every container's free-time clock in real time, not a spreadsheet someone updates when they remember.

2. Layer in Real-Time Vessel and Terminal Visibility

AIS vessel tracking combined with terminal operating data can flag when a vessel is running behind schedule and more importantly, when the terminal itself is congested, regardless of vessel ETA. This is the difference between finding out about a delay and predicting one.

3. Set Automated Alerts Ahead of Free-Time Expiry

The goal is an alert fired with enough runway to act - ideally 3-5 days before free time expires, not the day it does. That window is what lets a team actually pull a container, arrange drayage, or negotiate an extension before the meter starts running.

4. Use Predictive Congestion Scoring for Routing Decisions

Rather than routing purely on shortest transit time or lowest freight rate, factor in a port's current congestion trend. A slightly longer route to a port with available yard capacity often costs less in total landed cost than the "faster" route into a bottleneck.

5. Build a Demurrage Dispute Process With Documentation Built In

When charges do accrue because the terminal - not the shipper - caused the delay, having time-stamped visibility data on hand makes disputing those charges with the carrier or terminal operator far more credible than a phone call after the fact.

6. Review Free-Time Terms at Contract Renewal, Not Mid-Crisis

Free time and per-diem rates are negotiable at the contract stage. Waiting until a port is already congested to have that conversation puts you in a much weaker position than negotiating it during a calm shipping season.

What "Good" Looks Like

Teams that manage this well tend to share a few habits:

•         They know their exposure before the invoice arrives, not after.

•         They differentiate between avoidable delays (documentation, customs holds, carrier scheduling) and structural ones (port congestion, geopolitical rerouting) - and manage each differently.

•         They treat visibility tools as a cost-avoidance investment, not an operational nice-to-have.

The Bottom Line for 2026

With rerouted trade flows putting sustained pressure on secondary ports, demurrage and detention are shaping up to be the real determinant of peak season costs this year - more than the freight rate itself (Dockflow). Import/export managers who move from reactive spreadsheet tracking to predictive, alert-driven visibility are the ones positioned to keep that meter from running longer than it has to.

Sources

Federal Maritime Commission - Detention and Demurrage

Al Jazeera - When Will the Strait of Hormuz Be "Safe" for Commercial Shipping Again?

Congressional Research Service - The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts

Dockflow - Demurrage and Detention Charges Will Decide Peak Season 2026, Not Freight Rates

This article is for general informational purposes only. Figures and statistics are drawn from publicly available third-party sources as cited; DahNAY Logistics makes no representation or warranty as to their completeness or accuracy and accepts no liability for errors, omissions, or reliance placed on this content, whether known or unknown at the time of publication.